Key Events to Watch in 2026

The OECD expects global growth to moderate from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026. Risk appetite of market participants tends to go down with such forecasts. The World Bank is relatively more positive about global growth in 2026, with an expectation of 3.1%.  But GDP is a lagging indicator. It is important to watch the actual data releases to determine how an economy performed in 2025. This may also lead forecasters to reassess and fine-tune their projections for 2026. Global growth depends on a lot of factors. Experienced traders tend to keep an eye on these factors to determine how fast the global economy and regional economies may grow. They also keep an eye on both projections and actual data releases to determine how the global markets moved in the past and make informed trading decisions. Here’s what to add to your watchlist in 2026. 

Russia-Ukraine War

The peace discussions in Geneva concluded within a day in November. While the plan may go through iterations, Kyrylo Budanov, the Head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, considers February 2026 as the “the next significant opportunity to end the war.” The President of Finland also expects negotiations in Q1 2026.

Geopolitical stability in the EU can significantly impact energy prices. Russia may be able to return to normal supply levels to the global markets. This may especially ease energy prices in the EU.

Most EU nations have already planned long-term spending to upgrade defence systems. They may continue to do so in 2026.

Since Ukraine would have to be rebuilt, the construction sector, including raw materials, logistics and the heavy machinery industry, may see a surge in demand.

Add to Your Watchlist

• General perception of global geopolitical risk as well as decrease in inflationary pressures.
• Energy prices in the EU and their impact on global supply.
• Investments and deals among logistics, infrastructure and construction companies with raw-material suppliers.

The ROI of AI

Massive AI investments (and the consequent promise of growth) propelled mega cap stocks through 2025. By December 10, 2025, the S&P 500 had surged nearly 17% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq 100 had added over 22%, riding the AI momentum. According to Deloitte’s October 2025 study, 85% of companies had already increased their AI investments in the first three quarters of 2025, and 91% planned to add further before the end of the year. The organisation believes that typical AI ROI takes about two to four years to reflect. This is significantly longer than the ROI of most technologies, which is under 12 months. According to a November 2025 report by McKinsey, most companies have only seen use-case-level benefits, with about 39% experiencing an impact on enterprise-level EBIT.

For the current high valuations of stocks and indices to hold, the conversation in 2026 needs to shift to “AI with receipts.” With speculations that the AI boom has reached a bubble stage, companies must demonstrate earnings, strong cash flow and scalable efficiency from their AI adoption.

While Morgan Stanley is heavily bullish on AI capex driving US equities, analysts at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are more cautious. The two emphasise that the global markets are increasingly seeking evidence of AI accruing productivity benefits. They fear that without broader productivity gains in the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 (apart from the Magnificent Seven), the market concentration risk will be too high to support significant further gains.

Add to Your Watchlist

• AI deals and investment growth in 2026.
• Corporate reports on AI-ROI, especially the non-MAG 7.
• Estimates of AI-driven global growth.
• Risk sentiment around AI consolidation.

Global Trade Relations

Two competing forces can potentially shape the global trade landscape for 2026: historically high levels of US-imposed tariffs and the agility of global supply chains. The trade-weighted average US tariffs reached 25.5% in 2025, the highest since 1890. This created a significant headwind for global growth, but only temporarily impacted trade volumes. This is due to the front-loading of imports in the US and bilateral deals. While the EU and US reached a headline 15% tariff rate, several Asian countries plan to sign bilateral deals with the US and with other European and Asian nations.

As the front-loading inventory depletes in 2026, the impact of tariffs may become more pronounced. US businesses can be expected to face inflationary fears as they replenish their inventories and eventually pass the price pressure on to the consumer. Plus, the 2026 mid-term elections in America may encourage the administration to make more trade-friendly decisions.

Countries heavily dependent on the US, such as Mexico and Vietnam, historically see a deeper impact of tariff decisions. On the other hand, nations like India and Brazil, which have grown their trade relations within the Global South, may witness a lower impact. Such trade deals tend to ease tariff pressures on nations and give businesses the clarity to plan and adjust prices.

Add to Your Watchlist

• Tariff adjustments by the White House.
• US and non-US bilateral trade deals. 
• Rise in corporate costs as import prices surge.
• Core inflation forecasts and data.
• Expiration of the US-China truce.

Other Market Movers to Keep an Eye On

Federal monetary easing may exert downward pressure on the US dollar, which may benefit gold. Central bank gold demand and the price of the yellow metal will remain a key focus to determine financial stress and inflation expectations. Persistent fiscal deficits and high sovereign debt levels may fuel bearish market sentiment.

To Sum Up

• Global growth is expected to moderate in 2026.
• Resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war may shift global risk sentiment.
• The global markets may look for real AI ROI before adding more capital.
• The impact of tariffs and bilateral deals will define the trade landscape in 2025.

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