Gold Prices Volatile on Tariff Uncertainty

Gold futures surged to a record high after the US announced tariffs on the import of gold on August 7, 2025. US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) stated that one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars would be subject to new US tariffs, at 39%. This followed a broader announcement of tariffs on Swiss imports. The CBP’s ruling reclassified certain gold bars under a taxable code, which was a change from their previous tax-exempt status. Gold futures soared to an all-time intraday high of $3,534 per ounce on August 8.

Trump Says, “No Tariff”

The tariff announcement-led confusion persisted through the weekend. President Trump clarified on social media on Monday, August 11, that gold imports would not face additional tariffs. US gold futures plunged 2.4% to $3,407 per ounce. Trump’s post also decreased the premium on spot gold, which was down 1.2% to $3,357.

The clarification that there would be no additional tariffs on gold also impacted the stocks of major US gold-producing companies. Barrick Mining fell 2.8% while Newmont declined slightly to $68.87.

Needless to say, any news on tariffs can lead to immediate market disruption. Gold prices jumped to record highs, due to the tariff-related panic in the global bullion markets. The uncertainty made traders nervous. However, President Trump’s announcement came as a relief, leading the price to ease. 

Impact of Potential Tariffs on Gold Prices

President Trump has signed an executive order granting tariff exemptions from September 8, 2025, to trading partners who reach agreements with the US on industrial exports. The exemptions cover several raw materials, including gold, nickel, pharmaceutical compounds and chemicals. The White House explained that the tariff cuts will apply to materials that “cannot be grown, mined, or naturally produced in the United States,” as well as for goods with “insufficient” domestic production.

Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, have a bullish outlook for gold price in the long term. JPMorgan forecasts the price to reach an average of $3,675 per ounce by the end of 2025, with a potential to cross the $4,000 mark by Q2 2026. This outlook is driven by rising recession risks, increased US tariffs on other goods, and ongoing trade tensions, which all increase the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. Central bank demand for gold is also a significant driver.

The attractiveness of gold increases during times of uncertainty, including confusion created by on again, off again tariffs by the US. The uncertainties regarding gold tariffs in August led gold price to rise above $3,500 an ounce by September 2, 2025, higher than the precious metal’s April peak. In fact, gold price has grown nearly 2x since early 2023, against the backdrop of a weakening US dollar and central banks adding to their gold reserves. The yellow metal started September with spot gold up 1.5% at $3,529.01 per ounce and bullion having gained 34.5% YTD.

What Gold Traders Should Watch

If the US had continued with its 39% tariffs on gold imports, Switzerland would have been the hardest hit. The country is a major supplier of 1kg gold bars to America. The temporary tariff issue disrupted shipments. This makes it crucial for gold traders to keep a close eye on news and developments related to tariffs, global trade flows and customs regulations.

Macroeconomic factors also have a meaningful impact on gold prices. Any rate cuts by major central banks, especially the US Fed. Interest rate cuts tend to boost gold prices as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset and tend to weaken the US dollar. This makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers. This effect is further amplified by existing factors, such as geopolitical uncertainty and strong central bank demand.

Those trading gold stocks and ETFs must focus on the performance of mining companies. The bullish sentiment from institutions like JPMorgan can drive investment into these assets. Demand for gold-backed ETFs increased for a second consecutive quarter in Q2 2025, reflecting a broader interest in gold as a portfolio hedge.

Geopolitical tensions, such as ongoing conflicts and trade disputes, will continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Also, keep an eye on central bank gold-buying trends, especially from countries like China and India, as their consistent purchases provide a strong price floor. Finally, track key economic indicators, like inflation and GDP growth, which can signal broader economic uncertainty and increase gold’s appeal as a hedge against market volatility.

Tips on Trading Gold Amid Price Uncertainties

Given the current market volatility and price uncertainties, a cautious and well-researched approach to gold trading could be the best course of action. Here are some useful tips to strengthen your gold trading strategy.

Follow Market Fundamentals

Pay attention to economic data, central bank policies, and geopolitical events. These are the main drivers of gold price. Central bank purchases and a weakening US dollar are key factors to watch.

Use Technical Analysis

While fundamentals are important, technical indicators can provide a short-term view of market sentiment. Popular indicators, such as Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), can help identify overbought or oversold conditions.

Manage Risk

Due to the potential for sharp price swings, it is crucial to use risk management strategies. This includes setting stop-loss orders to limit potential losses and maintaining a diversified portfolio.

Consider Long-Term Trends

Major financial institutions have a long-term bullish view on gold. This suggests that even with short-term volatility, the overall trend may be upward. Investors should consider dollar-cost averaging to build their positions over time and avoid trying to time the market.

Stay Informed

The brief tariff scare demonstrates how quickly market conditions can change. Stay updated on market news and announcements from official sources. This will help you react to unexpected events and make informed trading decisions.

To Sum Up

• The US announced 39% tariff on one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars on August 7, 205.
• Gold prices soared on the news.
• On August 11, President Trump stated that there would be no additional tariffs on gold imports to the US.
• Gold prices plunged on August 12.
• Although analysts are bullish on gold, tariff-related uncertainty can lead to price volatility.
• Traders should keep an eye on the latest news, central bank interest rate decisions, performance of gold mining companies, key economic indicators and central bank gold demand.
• Technical analysis, risk management and a focus on long-term trends are important during short-term volatility.

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